RISK INTELLIGENCE FOR PRIVATE CREDIT

The risk your fund doesn't show you.

65 funds. 14,000 positions. Every number traced to an SEC filing.

65
Funds monitored
14K
Portfolio positions
Q1 '26
Latest data
87%
Tier 1 sourced
Platform

Fund-level risk, filed and scored.

Leverage, redemption pressure, PIK income, non-accrual rates — pulled from 10-Ks and N-PORTs. Updated quarterly.

Highest Risk Funds Q1 2026
SEC EDGAR — funds
Fund AUM D/E Non-Accrual PIK % Gate Rating
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Methodology

Filed. Scored. Traced.

Every metric links to its SEC source. Click any number to see the filing.

01
SEC filings, direct

10-Ks, 10-Qs, and N-PORTs from EDGAR. Quarterly cadence. No intermediaries.

N-PORT EDGAR 10-K
02
12-factor risk model

Leverage, concentration, PIK, liquidity, fees, redemption pressure. Weighted and normalized to a 0–100 composite.

12 factors Weighted 0–100 scale
03
Full provenance

Every data point tagged: Filed, Disclosed, Estimated, or Derived. 87% are Tier 1 — direct from SEC filings.

87% Tier 1 Full audit trail Source labels

See the data behind
the quarterly letter.

65 funds scored. 14,000 positions mapped. Updated quarterly from SEC filings.

For institutional allocators and risk teams

DIRIGON

65 funds · $414B AUM · Q1 2026

Last Updated
April 06, 2026 — 11:23 AM ET
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Fund Company Sector Security Type Positions Par/Shares Fair Value ($) Notes

Select 2–3 funds to analyze

Score how similar your funds are across 7 risk dimensions. Lower overlap = better diversification.

Market Context

Week of April 3 – April 6, 2026 ▼
Bloomberg
Apr 6
Barings Private Credit Corp caps Q1 redemptions at 5% after investors request 11.3% of shares; paying out less than half of requests — latest major fund to gate.
Bloomberg
Apr 6
Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp dodges exodus with 4.999% redemptions — the only non-traded BDC in peer group whose requests came in below the standard 5% cap.
Bloomberg / CNBC
Apr 2
Blue Owl caps OCIC (21.9%) and OTIC (40.7%) redemptions at 5%; investors redeemed only half of the $14B requested in Q1. OWL stock falls 7% to record low.
SEC
Apr 2026
SEC 2026 exam priorities explicitly target private credit retailization — scrutinizing ETFs with illiquid underlying assets, closed-end funds, and non-traded BDCs with extended lock-ups.
Bloomberg
Apr 1
House Financial Services Committee grills Blackstone, Ares, Apollo, BlackRock, Blue Owl, and Carlyle on private credit marketing, valuation, and fee practices.
Bloomberg
Mar 26
JPMorgan plans new Private Credit Fund offering 7.5% quarterly repurchases — asks SEC for exemption to allow monthly repurchases of at least 2%, signaling structural innovation.
Markets Media
Apr 2026
Retail outflows in private credit funds forecast to continue through 2027; average Q1 redemption request across major funds was 15%, with $2.1B+ unfulfilled.
Fitch Ratings
Apr 2026
US private credit default rate (PCDR) climbs to 5.8% TTM through January 2026; Morgan Stanley warns rates could surge to 8% in AI-vulnerable software sectors.
Total Funds
65
Critical Risk
0
High Risk
0
Elevated Risk
0
Moderate Risk
0
Combined AUM
$414B
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Identification Credit Quality Leverage & Liquidity Redemption & Watch Signals Valuation
# Fund AUM ($B) Type Non-Accrual % PIK Income % Software/Tech % Risk Rating D/E Reg. Headroom Avail. Liq ($B) Liq/AUM % Redemption Rate Redemption Cap Gate Status Q1 Commentary Q2 Watch Signal Price/NAV NAV/Share
Redemption Activity
Aggregate Q1 2026 redemption requests across the six largest non-traded vehicles exceeded $10 billion. Three funds activated quarterly caps; OBDC II entered permanent wind-down. Unmet redemption queues will carry forward into Q2 tender windows.
BDC Maturity Wall
Approximately $12.7B in BDC debt matures in 2026, a 73% increase over 2025. Refinancing conditions have tightened, with unsecured rates for mid-tier issuers climbing above 5.0%. Funds with near-term maturities face elevated rollover risk.
Income Quality Indicators
Average PIK income across the 65-fund universe stands at 6.5% of total investment income. Ten funds exceed 10% PIK concentration. Elevated PIK ratios, particularly when combined with rising non-accrual rates, have historically preceded distribution adjustments.
Credit Quality Distribution
Average non-accrual rate across the universe is 2.6% at fair value. Thirteen funds report rates above 5.0%. The dispersion between best-in-class portfolios (sub-1% non-accruals) and stressed funds (above 8%) reflects meaningful credit quality bifurcation.

Portfolio Construction Tool

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Portfolio Metrics

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Risk Rating Methodology

Each fund is assessed using a weighted composite of six quantitative and qualitative factors. Sub-metrics within each factor are scored on a 0-100 scale. The composite score maps to five rating levels. Ratings reflect the quantitative framework output. Any manual adjustment for binary events (e.g., a fund announcing permanent closure) is documented and labeled.

Redemption Pressure 25%

Measures intensity of investor withdrawal activity relative to fund capacity.

  • Redemption requests as % of NAV
  • Gate status and fulfillment rate
  • Unmet redemption queue as % of NAV

Leverage & Headroom 20%

Assesses debt-to-equity ratio relative to regulatory maximums and covenant cushion.

  • Current D/E vs. 2.0x regulatory maximum
  • Covenant headroom and testing frequency
  • Refinancing maturity ladder

Credit Quality 20%

Evaluates portfolio health through non-accrual rates and PIK concentration.

  • Non-accrual rate at fair value
  • PIK income as % of total income
  • Loan loss provision adequacy

Portfolio Concentration 15%

Measures exposure to sector and company-level risks.

  • Software/technology sector exposure
  • Top 10 portfolio company concentration
  • Borrower size distribution

Liquidity & Funding 12%

Assesses access to capital and ability to meet obligations.

  • Available liquidity as % of AUM
  • Debt facility maturity profile
  • Funding diversification

Valuation & Discount 8%

For traded BDCs, tracks market's risk assessment versus NAV.

  • Price-to-NAV ratio
  • Historical discount/premium volatility
  • Implied market risk perception

Rating Scale

Score Range Rating Interpretation
76-100 CRITICAL Imminent liquidity event, active gating, or structural impairment
56-75 HIGH Elevated probability of liquidity stress within 1-2 quarters
36-55 ELEVATED Emerging risk factors warranting enhanced monitoring
16-35 MODERATE Manageable risk profile under current conditions
0-15 LOW Strong liquidity, conservative leverage, clean credit quality

Data Sources & Provenance

Tier 1 (Filed): Data sourced from SEC 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings. Displayed without indicator.

Tier 2 (Estimated): Analyst estimates or management guidance. Marked with superscript "E" and displayed in amber.

Tier 3 (Pending): Data not yet available or awaiting disclosure. Displayed as gray dash (\u2014).

This is an analytical framework, not an investment recommendation. Users should conduct independent due diligence before making allocation decisions. All ratings are point-in-time assessments and subject to rapid change in volatile markets.

Market Data & Macro Context

Key market indicators framing the private credit environment \u2014 updated weekly

Credit Spread Environment

IG and HY OAS trends \u2014 basis points

IG OAS (Current)120 bps
HY OAS (Current)470 bps
HY Spread Widening YTD+110 bps
BDC Risk Premium260 bps

Private Credit Default Rates

Trailing 12-month rates by source \u2014 quarterly

Dirigon Universe Avg (65 funds)2.6%
Fitch Forecast (Software-Heavy)9.2%
Morgan Stanley Projection8.0%
Moody's Baseline3.8%

BDC Debt Maturity Schedule

Aggregate BDC unsecured debt maturing \u2014 $B

2026 Maturities$12.7B (+73% vs 2025)
2027 Maturities$18.3B (est.)
Avg Unsecured Rate (Mid-Tier)5.0%+
CLO New Issuance YoY Change-35%

Redemption Activity \u2014 Non-Traded Vehicles

Quarterly redemption requests vs. fulfillment \u2014 top 6 non-traded funds

Q1 2026 Total Requests~$10B+
Funds Hitting Gate3 of 6 (50%)
Permanent Closures1 (OBDC II)
Avg Fulfillment Rate~65%

Alt Manager Equity Performance

YTD price change for major private credit sponsors

ManagerTickerYTD ChangeFrom Peak
Blue Owl CapitalOWL-53.7%-58%
Ares ManagementARES-45.0%-48%
BlackstoneBX-44.0%-46%
KKR & CoKKR-42.0%-45%
Apollo GlobalAPO-28.0%-32%
Golub Capital BDCGBDC-18.5%-22%
Main Street CapitalMAIN-12.3%-16%

Dirigon Universe \u2014 Risk Distribution

65-fund universe by risk rating and AUM concentration

Sources: Bloomberg, Fitch Ratings, Moody's, Morgan Stanley Research, Stanger & Co., SEC EDGAR, Dirigon Analysis. Credit spread data as of March 21, 2026. Default rate forecasts reflect published research estimates. BDC maturity data from Raymond James, PitchBook.

Fund Comparison & Decision Intelligence

Select 2-5 funds to compare side-by-side and discover the key differences that drive portfolio outcomes

Select at least two funds above and click "Compare" to generate a side-by-side analysis.
Data Integrity & Methodology
Data Provenance: Values displayed without indicators are sourced from SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K). Values marked with "E" superscript are analyst estimates. Dashes (\u2014) indicate data not yet available. Users should verify all figures against primary sources before making allocation decisions.
Definitions:
  • Non-Accrual Rate: Fair value of investments on non-accrual status as a percentage of total portfolio fair value.
  • PIK Income: Payment-in-kind interest collected as a percentage of total investment income (a proxy for credit stress).
  • Software/Tech Exposure: Portfolio companies engaged in software development, SaaS, digital services, or IT infrastructure.
  • D/E (Debt-to-Equity): Total debt (including CLO issuances) divided by total equity. Regulatory maximum for BDCs: 2.0x.
  • Regulatory Headroom: Cushion between current D/E and 2.0x regulatory maximum, expressed as a percentage.
  • Gate Status: "None" = no gating; "Partial" = tiered redemption caps active; "Full" = all redemptions suspended; "Closed" = permanent wind-down.
Not Investment Advice: This monitor is an analytical reference tool provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to purchase or sell any instrument. All assessments are subject to rapid change in volatile markets. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
Primary Sources: SEC EDGAR, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Fitch Ratings | Supplementary: PitchBook, S&P Global, Raymond James | Dirigon v1.0